Modelling Approaches

Another important element of the GBYP research plan is the development of a robust advice framework consistent with the Precautionary Approach. This requires also the use of new stock assessment methods that take into account the main sources of uncertainty and utilise the new data sets and knowledge provided by the GBYP. New data sets include, for example, historic catch and effort data, aerial surveys of spawning aggregations, the results of the biological studies and tagging of both juveniles and adults.

In order to evaluate novel approaches, the SCRS is developing a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework that includes a simulation or Operating Model. This will allow current and alternative assessment and advice frameworks to be evaluated with respect to their ability to meet multiple management objectives.

A GBYP Core Modelling MSE Group was established in Phase 4 and the Modelling Strategic Plan is regularly updated.

Year Document
2017 SCRS/2017/225 Carruthers et al. R Package ABT-MSE
2017 SCRS/2017/224 Carruthers et al. Example Management Procedures Performance
2017 SCRS/2017/223 Carruthers et al. Conditioned Operating Models Reference Set
2017 SCRS/2017/190 Morse et al. Stock Mixing Updated Analysis
2017 SCRS/2017/178 Morse et al. VPA Simulation on Mixed Stock
2017 SCRS/2017/177 Kerr et al. Operating Model Pseudodata for Stock Assessment
2017 SCRS/2017/124 Kell et al. Stock Assessment Bias and Prediction Skill
2017 SCRS/2017/019 Carruthers Operating Model Relative Spatial and Seasonal Abundance Indices
2016 SCRS/2016/205 Carruthers Electronic Tags Stock Specific Movements
2016 SCRS/2016/204 Carruthers et al. Operating Models Application Beyond MSE
2016 SCRS/2016/145 Carruthers et al. Operative Models Preliminary Conditioning Issues
2016 SCRS/2016/144 Carruthers et al. Multi-Stock Model With Age Based Movement Simulation Testing
2016 ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol. 73 , Issue 2, Pages 464–482 Carruthers et al. 2016, Performance Review of Simple Management Procedures
2015 SCRS/2015/180 Carruthers et al. Data for MSE Operating Models
2015 SCRS/2015/179 Carruthers et al. Operating Models Structure and Estimation Framework
2015 SCRS/2015/172 Kimoto et al. Mixing Model North Atlantic Area Stratification
2014 SCRS/2014/177 Galuardi et al. Electronic Tags for Transition Matrices Population Models
2014 SCRS/2014/101 Levontin et al. MSE Robustnes Trials Scenarios
2014 Marine Policy Vol. 48, Pages 84-92, Leach et al. 2014, Uncertainties Identification an Prioritization for BFT Management
2012 SCRS/2012/186 Kell et al. E-BFT Projections
2012 SCRS/2012/030 Kell et al. Catch-At-Size as Exploatation Level Indicator
2012 SCRS/2012/029 Kell et al. Catch Curve Analysis
2011 SCRS/2011/199 Cooke Candidate BFT Management Procedure Outline
2011 SCRS/2011/110 Kell et al. Population Structure Advice Framework MSE